Historical odds are very slim that the Fargo-Moorhead area will have another major flood this spring, says Adnan Akyuz, North Dakota's state climatologist and assistant professor of climatology in North Dakota State University's Soil Science Department.
"In 113 years of recorded history, there were only three incidents when back-to-back major floods occurred," he says. "1965-66, 1978-79 and 2006-07 were the three incidents when the U.S. Geological Survey gauge recorded the stage at or above 30 feet, the major flood stage in Fargo.
However, current conditions are indicating another major flood is likely. Fargo has received 4.28 inches of precipitation in liquid equivalence since Dec. 1, which is the highest amount in recorded history. By this date last year, Fargo received 3.25 inches.
"If we do not have additional significant precipitation and get a slow warmup and a slow snowmelt rate, we can dodge the disaster," Akyuz says. "History shows that not all extreme winter precipitations produced major floods. For example, 1994 and 1937, the second and third snowiest seasons, produced peak flood stages of 26.69 and 10.17 feet, respectively. Let's hope for another 1937."
Source: NDSU Extension Communications
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